The 2028 Bitcoin halving: target block and estimated timing
The next halving is not an event booked on a calendar. It happens when the chain reaches a defined target block. The year is a useful schedule guide, but the exact date and time move with the actual pace of block production.
This page keeps the current reference values for the next event together. A separate guide explains the estimate itself in more detail.
- Target block
- #1,050,000
- Block subsidy
- 3.125 → 1.5625 BTC
- Time status
- Estimated · confirmed at target
The protocol fixes a height and subsidy
Block height is the sequence number of a block in Bitcoin's chain. The next halving occurs when the network includes the target-height block in the valid chain, and the new block subsidy is cut in half from that block onward.
A changing year or date estimate does not move the target height or rewrite the subsidy rule. The values below are generated from BtcCal's shared subsidy schedule.
| Item | Current reference | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Next halving | Halving 5 | Forecast |
| Target height | #1,050,000 | Protocol rule |
| Block subsidy | 3.125 → 1.5625 BTC | Protocol rule |
| Schedule label | 2028 | Year-level estimate |
Read the estimate through two time bases
BtcCal's primary countdown applies the long-run target of ten minutes per block to the remaining blocks. The actual average over the latest 2,016 blocks is a separate reference showing the recent direction of travel.
A difference between the dates is not an error. It means the recent pace was faster or slower than the long-run target. The gap can narrow or reverse after a difficulty adjustment or a change in network hashrate.
Ten minutes per block
The static fallback date is 2028-04-13. A live height recalculates the estimate from its observation time.
Latest 2,016 blocks
Applies the observed average seconds to the same remaining blocks. It does not guarantee the future pace.
Block intervals and difficulty adjustments move the time
Blocks are not produced at exact ten-minute appointments. Mining is probabilistic, so short or long intervals can cluster, while a change in total network hashrate can shift the average pace for a period.
Every 2,016 blocks, Bitcoin adjusts difficulty from the preceding period's pace to steer the long-run average back toward ten minutes. That mechanism does not fix the time of an individual block or reserve a date for the next halving.
The Season 5 candidate and forecast ranges are different
The low candidate already observed for Season 5 has provisional status. It can change if a later review identifies a lower major low. The ranges that carry past Season 2–4 low and high coordinates onto the next halving are marked separately as forecast.
When the estimated halving date moves, date-derived coordinates and calendar ranges are recalculated. None of these values is a target price, trading time, or predicted price path.
| Type | Observed or calculated value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Low candidate | 2026-07-01 · D-652 | Provisional |
| Historical low range | D-542 to D-513 · 2026-10-19 to 2026-11-17 | Forecast |
| Historical high range | D+526 to D+548 · 2029-09-21 to 2029-10-13 | Forecast |
Sources and limits of the current values
The target height and subsidy come from BtcCal's static protocol schedule. Current height is requested from mempool.space first, with Blockstream as the fallback provider. If live responses fail, the interface labels a cache state or switches to a manual estimate.
The displayed estimate must therefore be read together with its observation time and data state. Old stored values are not presented as new live data, and BtcCal does not predict future hashrate or difficulty.
- mempool.space REST API · Verified 2026-07-25
- Blockstream Esplora API · Verified 2026-07-25
- BtcCal data sources and outage handling
Content updated