Cycle-analysis methodology

Each halving date is day zero

Dates before a season’s halving receive negative offsets; dates after it receive positive offsets. Calculations use UTC date boundaries.

Selecting cycle lows and highs

Season 1–4 lows and highs are reference points visually verified on the TradingView INDEX:BTCUSD chart using daily candles in the UTC timezone. Candle lows and highs, including wicks rather than closes, are used: the low is the major cycle low before the season’s halving, and the high is the major cycle high after it.

These values are not mechanically calculated minima or maxima from CoinGecko daily closes. Confirmed means that the dates and prices were rechecked on August 10, 2026 under this chart, timezone, and price basis; they can be revised if the basis or source data changes.

The Season 5 value of July 1, 2026 at $57,748 is the low candidate identified so far under the same basis. It remains provisional and may change if a lower major low emerges or the selection basis changes.

Three data states

Season 5 candidate and forecast windows

The provisional July 1, 2026 low candidate is positioned relative to the fifth-halving estimate calculated from the current block height at ten minutes per block. Its coordinate is recalculated when the estimate moves, while the observed date of July 1, 2026 remains unchanged. The low window of −542 to −513 days and high window of +526 to +548 days remain separate comparisons carried forward from observed seasons 2–4.

Even when the candidate sits earlier than the existing low window, this alone neither invalidates the historical window nor determines a future price path. Neither value is a trading date or target price.

Review the calculation and price bases